Will Ethereum hit 10.000$ by end of 2018? Bold Predictions
Recently, Ethereum (ETH), surpassed the 1.000$ mark. So what is next? Will it hit the 10.000$ mark by the end of the year? Will it take over big brother Bitcoin?
The Crypto-Prospect team had the same question and decided to put our analytics background to good use. We embarked on the tedious road of predicting what the future price will be. Although there is high volatility to the cryptocurrency market, using time series analysis and a few tricks we managed to develop an algorithm to help us in our quest.
Of course, you shouldn’t take our results as granted. We are not fortune tellers and also we can’t be 100% certain that our scenarios will unfold. But we wanted to let the maths do the talking. There are a lot o people out there that say that from their perspective, from their view, based on their hunch or the feelings that they have, they think that Ethereum will reach x price. While wisdom of the crowd is a good tool to use, it is also subjective of the preference or how much research they put in. Our approach comes in as an additional tool. Surely, you should read what the experts say but also you can use the mathematical methods that we provide in order to leverage knowledge with statistics, and of course, help you in the long run to make even better decisions and more profit.
So we took all the historical data from CoinMarketCap and used R tool to develop our analysis. The data set starts from 07.08.2015 and runs until 31.20.2017 with the objective to predict what the prices will be in the next months starting from Jan-Dec 2018. We used the closing prices of the market and this is the price that we predicted for the end of 2018. As traditional, we split our data into training(75%) and test (25%) and afterwards forecast the 2018 year. This roughly means that the training will be done on the time series up until mid 2017 with the rest being distributed in the test part. We are not going into the tech of the algorithm that we developed, but after careful tuning and validation, we reached our final results.
What have we uncovered?
Firstly, we will talk about the accuracy of the algorithm. We managed to achieve a mean accuracy of:
This means, that on average, we managed to predict the prices with a 74.39% accuracy on the test data set. This is a pretty good result given the high volatility of the market and the fact that we had only about 2.5 years of data. For sure, as the historical data will grow, our accuracy will end up in the same direction.
Given this algorithm, now we had to forecast the 2018 year to see in what direction Ethereum is heading. Bellow, you can find the results:
Out of this chart, we can say, with a 74.39% that Ethereum will reach 9.000$ by December 2018. But, there is a but, keeping all the conditions up until now. That meaning, there can be a lot of outside events that can also influence the price (like possibly regulated markets, hopefully not banning some countries, end of the world). What about the 10.000$ landmark? It is very possible we can see that happening.
As we mentioned before, this is what the mathematics reveal to us, for the moment. So don’t take this price for granted. It just helps you as an additional resource of analysis.
Definitely, we will keep updating the algorithm with new data and see how that will influence the rest of the year prediction.
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For more custom cryptocurrency forecasts, contact us @ firstname.lastname@example.org and see if we can reach an agreement to deliver you more analysis.