Augur – Token forecast
As promised, we have added new forecasts to our portfolio. This time, the token Augur was the one selected.
So what is Augur?
For the ones that are not familiar with this crypto, “Augur is a trustless, open-source, decentralized oracle and prediction market platform built on the Ethereum blockchain” (you can find out more here). Basically, they are using the wisdom of the crowd to predict future events.
Why did we choose to forecast Augur?
- It has more than 2 years of data available since it was listed on the exchanges (from Oct 27, 2015)
- This “vast” amount of data, in the crypto world, put us in a situation that we can jump into its analysis
- We have to admit that we had a soft spot for it, being that they are producing predictions just like us
- We can say that being well established, we don’t expect fluctuations to be that big, thus giving more power to our algorithms
Just like in the other cryptocurrencies that we have on our forecast page (http://crypto-prospect.com/crypto-forecasts/), we took all the historical data from Oct 27, 2015 until today, split it into training and testing and ran our algorithms on it. We used the Closing price of the token throughout our analysis and added also the influence of Bitcoin to the algorithm (this is because we observed there is a price change influence coming from the father of all crypto.)
This led our algorithms (best 2 of them) to produce an average accuracy of 71%, that is pretty high given the volatility of the market.
Augur entered our daily automatic update scripts, so each day, an automatic script will take the whole historical data until that point, generate the best 2 algorithms for predicting the next 30 days and display the results on our forecasting page .
You can also see the chart here:
If you liked our analysis and want more in the future, don’t forget to Like & Share or give us your thoughts in a Comment.
Until next time, Enjoy Prospecting!